The Tigers are making me nervous, there I said it. Yes I know this blog is usually reserved for high school sports, but when guys on the sidelines at football games are looking for mobile scoring updates, it is safe to say the Thumb is full of Tigers fan and this is a fair topic.
How big of fans are we at the Huron County Press? Well my office dry erase board has been turned into Tigers headquarters, with a calendar drawn on the board with all remaining games for Detroit and Minnesota, standings, magic number update, scores, etc.
I said about two weeks ago if the Tigers won 10 games and reached the 85 win mark they were winning the division. Because even though that meant playing .400 ball down the stretch, Minnesota would need to play over .700 ball to win.
From what I had figured, the Tigers are just one game off that pace (I predicted them needing six wins the rest of the way starting with the road trip, they need seven).
But thinking back, that is such loser talk. That is more of the Twins losing the division then us winning it. I'd really like to see us finish stronger and not limp into the playoffs, because Minnesota ran out of time.
Before I expound on my theories as to how the Tigers will pull this off, I've got bad news for the pessimists and good news for the optimists. However you are feeling right nw, please feel free to use these facts to your advantage.
For the pessimists. the Tigers are 4-7 against the Twins this year, including 1-5 on the road.
For the optimists, in their last nine Sept. games against the Twins, the Tigers are 7-2 and those wherein years (2007 & 2008) where the team wasn't that great. The point being, in recent years...it seems the only time we can consistently beat the Twins is in September.
SO that's all well and good but the bigger question is, how do we get from the MAGIC NUMBER of 13 to 0.
Here's what I see:
Best case scenaro, the Tigers go 5-4 on the road, worse case 4-5. At 5-4 I would predict 2 wins against Minnesota. 2 against Cleveland and 1 against the White Sox or 1 against Twins and CWS and a sweep of the Tribe. In the first scenario the magic number is 6 in the second one it is 7.
In the worse case of 4 wins, I see one each vs. the Twins and CWS and two against Cleveland, putting the magic number at 9.
But in either scenario, the Twins aren't going undefeated the rest of the way. Of their six other games in that stretch, 3 vs. CWS and 3 vs. KC, I see them going 4-2. Those 2 losses reduce the magic number to 4 in the 1st scenario, 5 in the second one and 7 in the worst case.
In scenario one, if the Tigers split their four home games with Minnesota, they win the pennant.
In scenaro two, if the Tigers split their four home games with Minnesota and win one of three against CWS or Minnesota loses one to KC, they win the pennant.
In the worst case scenario, a split with Minnesota puts the magic number at 3 with three games to go. The only positive would be, if they got swept by CWS and Minnesota won out, they would still have a chance in a one game playoff.
However, here's why the worst case scenario won't happen. That scenario calls for the Twins to win 11 of their last 16 or finish at a .688 pace. They currently have a .503 winning percentage.
The Tigers to fall into a one game playoff scenario would need to finish 6-10 down the stretch or play at a .375 pace. They are a .534 team right now.
So bottom line it will take an amazing effort for the Twins to overtake the Tigers, one I think they can't make.
It should be a fun and nerve-wracking ride the rest of the way in either case. Here's hoping the Tigers pull it together, take 2-of-3 from the Twins, sweep the Tribe and win one against CWS for a 6-3 road trip, which would put the magic number down to 5 and with at least a pair of other Twins losses possibly as low as 3.
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