Handicapping the State Finals

After a week full of track, track, track I know there is one thing on minds of track fans. Which local athletes are heading to the finals and what are their chances fo winning?
With that in mind, I've gone through the list on the MHSAA website and modified it so that it includes the person with the top time/distance/height in the event, and then just the athletes from my coverage area that have made it.
The number to the left is how they ranked amongst the ohter qualifiers in their event (ex. Carly Treiber's throw of 111-10 in the dicsus was sixth best, but 15 less than the top thrower).
With that in mind, here is the list:
MHSAA 2007 Track and Field Finals - Girls Division 3 Qualifiers
GIRLS DISCUS
1 Lakeview Harrington, Stacey (Sr.) 126'01.00"
6 Unionville-Sebewaing Treiber, Carly (So.) 111'10.00"
15 Unionville-Sebewaing Treiber, Jessica (Sr.) 100'07.00"

GIRLS POLE VAULT
1 Grand Rapids West Catholic Morrissey, Kelly (Fr.) 10'07.00"
16 Unionville-Sebewaing Turschak, Sara (So.) 9'00.00"

GIRLS LONG JUMP
1 Flint Hamady Johnson, Tara (Sr.) 17'09.00"
3 Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker Dubey, Chelsea (So.) 17'03.00"

GIRLS 100 METER DASH
1 Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central Bellino, Meg (So.) 12.33
3 Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker Dubey, Chelsea (So.) 12.44

GIRLS 100M HURDLES
1 Benzie Central Horvath, Kelsey (Sr.) 15.40
17 Cass City Richards, Jennica (So.) 16.53

GIRLS 200 METER DASH
1 Frankenmuth Ritter, Kelsey (Fr.) 25.52
3 Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker Dubey, Chelsea (So.) 26.09

GIRLS 300M LOW HURD
1 Grandville Calvin Christian Holtrop, Kim (SP) 46.30
23 Cass City Richards, Jennica (So.) 49.43

GIRLS 400 METER DASH
1 Albion Chapman, Joranda 58.50
8 Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker Dubey, Chelsea (So.) 59.85

GIRLS 800 METER RUN
1 Albion Bannister, Amelia 2:19.46
26 Unionville-Sebewaing Valentine, Cami (9 ) 2:30.38

GIRLS 1600 METER RUN
1 Jackson Lumen Christi Snyder, Hilary 5:12.55
30 Unionville-Sebewaing Turschak, Sara (So.) 5:33.98
31 Unionville-Sebewaing Martinez, Mercy (Jr.) 5:41.82

GIRLS 3200 METER RUN
1 Jackson Lumen Christi Snyder, Hilary 11:23.86
35 Unionville-Sebewaing Turschak, Sara (So.) 12:24.63
36 Cass City Loomis, Brittany (So.) 12:34.31

GIRLS 400 METER RELAY
1 Flint Hamady 50.76
22 Bad Axe 52.52

GIRLS 1600 METER RELAY
1 Albion 4:05.54
28 Unionville-Sebewaing 4:22.54

GIRLS 3200 METER RELAY
1 Jackson Lumen Christi 9:43.05
23 Unionville-Sebewaing 10:24.86

MHSAA 2007 Track and Field Finals - Boys Division 3 Qualifiers
BOYS DISCUS
1 Williamston Stiffler, Donnie (Jr.) 164'00.00"
15 Bad Axe Grigg, Aeron (Sr.) 137'07.00"

BOYS SHOT PUT
1 Hillsdale English, Nate (Sr.) 57'10.00"
9 Cass City Bowen, Dennis (Sr.) 48'11.50"

BOYS HIGH JUMP
1 Manchester Sawyer, Jarod (Jr.) 6'05.01"
4 Cass City Summersett, Chris (So.) 6'03.10"

BOYS POLE VAULT
1 Williamston Walters, Josh (Sr.) 13'09.01"
19 Cass City Koepf, Mark (Sr.) 12'06.00"

BOYS 200 METER DASH
1 Saginaw Nouvel Shaltry, Kenji (Sr.) 22.01
21 Cass City Babich, Austin (So.) 23.02

BOYS 400 METER DASH
1 Detroit Country Day Rucker, Chris (Sr.) 50.03
16 Unionville-Sebewaing Jackson, Isaiah (Sr.) 51.74

BOYS 800 METER RUN
1 Williamston Ash, David (Sr.) 1:57.02
4 Unionville-Sebewaing Eisengruber, Matt (Sr.) 1:58.38

BOYS 1600 METER RUN
1 Ovid-Elsie Darling, Maverick (Jr.) 4:18.93
25 Cass City Varney, Lukas (So.) 4:38.46

BOYS 3200 METER RUN
1 Ovid-Elsie Darling, Maverick (Jr.) 9:27.44
39 Cass City Varney, Lukas (So.) 10:37.30

BOYS 1600 METER RELAY
1 Saginaw Swan Valley 3:26.48
20 Unionville-Sebewaing 3:34.35
22 Cass City 3:35.96

BOYS 3200 METER RELAY
1 Bangor 8:12.80
23 Unionville-Sebewaing 8:35.01

MHSAA 2007 Track and Field Finals - Girls Division 4 Qualifiers
GIRLS SHOT PUT
1 Hillsdale Academy Buchhop, Gwen (Sr.) 38'08.75"
15 Port Hope Abraham, Marci (Sr.) 34'00.00"

GIRLS HIGH JUMP
1 Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest Maccourtney, Sarah (So.) 5'04.00"
3 Kinde North Huron Heffner, Megan(9 ) 5'03.00"
5 Ubly Labuhn, Shelby (Sr.) 5'01.00"
12 Ubly Weber, Shannon (Jr.) 5'00.00"

GIRLS POLE VAULT
1 Pewamo-Westphalia Schafer, Amanda (Sr.) 9'09.00"
3 Harbor Beach Kirsch, Jacqueline (Jr.) 9'09.00"

GIRLS LONG JUMP
1 Jonesville Dow, Sydney (Sr.) 16'11.00"
13 Ubly Kubacki, Kayla (So.) 15'10.75"

GIRLS 100 METER DASH
1 Ann Arbor Greenhills Ajegba, Brittany (Sr.) 12.19
4 Ubly Kaufman, Jade (Sr.) 12.32

GIRLS 100M HURDLES
1 Reading Thorp, Whitney (Jr.) 15.40
4 Kinde North Huron Homrich, Caitlin(9 ) 15.89
5 Ubly Labuhn, Shelby (Sr.) 16.04
8 Ubly Weber, Shannon (Jr.) 16.39
11 Ubly Helewski, Kalyn (So.) 16.53
21 Harbor Beach Kirsch, Jacqueline (Jr.) 16.78
25 Caseville Quinn, Emily (Sr.) 16.90

GIRLS 200 METER DASH
1 Ubly Kaufman, Jade (Sr.) 26.21
13 Kinde North Huron Homrich, Caitlin(9 ) 27.47

GIRLS 300M LOW HURD
1 Saginaw Valley Lutheran Witchger, Christine (Jr.) 47.54
6 Kinde North Huron Heffner, Megan(9 ) 48.74
9 Harbor Beach Kirsch, Jacqueline (Jr.) 49.06
12 Ubly Franzel, Nicole(9 ) 49.44
19 Caseville Quinn, Emily (Sr.) 49.99
22 Ubly Weber, Shannon (Jr.) 50.14

GIRLS 400 METER DASH
1 Ubly Kaufman, Jade (Sr.) 59.86
12 Ubly Kubacki, Kayla (So.) 1:01.82
13 Ubly White, Lyndsay (So.) 1:02.41

GIRLS 800 METER RUN
1 Maple City Glen Lake Treece, Marissa (Sr.) 2:17.06
10 Ubly White, Lyndsay (So.) 2:27.44
11 Ubly Kubacki, Kylee (Sr.) 2:27.89
13 Harbor Beach Buchholz, Holly (So.) 2:28.33
15 Ubly Kubacki, Chelsey (Jr.) 2:29.00
18 Ubly White, Jennifer(9 ) 2:29.36
19 Harbor Beach Woycehoski, Bri (Fr.) 2:29.70

GIRLS 1600 METER RUN
1 Maple City Glen Lake Treece, Marissa (Sr.) 5:01.60
5 Ubly Kubacki, Kylee (Sr.) 5:20.59
14 Harbor Beach Woycehoski, Bri (Fr.) 5:31.00
22 Harbor Beach Wessels, Ali (Fr.) 5:37.04

GIRLS 400 METER RELAY
1 Jonesville 51.50
8 Ubly 53.43

GIRLS 800 METER RELAY
1 Colon 1:49.20
13 Ubly 1:51.87

GIRLS 1600 METER RELAY
1 Ubly 4:10.47
6 Harbor Beach 4:16.28

GIRLS 3200 METER RELAY
1 Ubly 9:37.84
3 Harbor Beach 9:52.71

MHSAA 2007 Track and Field Finals - Boys Division 4 Qualifiers
BOYS POLE VAULT
1 Fulton-Middleton Boulis, Matt (Sr.) 14'00.00"
27 Harbor Beach Seidl, Brian (Jr.) 11'06.00"
28 Kinde North Huron Wisneski, Ed (Jr.) 11'06.00"

BOYS LONG JUMP
1 Eau Claire Patterson, Patrick (Sr.) 21'03.00"
15 Harbor Beach Ginther, Kevin (Sr.) 20'01.00"

BOYS 100 METER DASH
1 Ann Arbor Greenhills Masters, Sean (Sr.) 10.81
31 Ubly David, Cody (Jr.) 11.54
32 Ubly Schroeder, Jason (Fr.) 11.55

BOYS 200 METER DASH
1 Jonesville Falk, Chad (Jr.) 22.50
25 Ubly Schroeder, Jason (Fr.) 24.02

BOYS 300M INTERM. HURDLES
1 Reading Morris, Trent (So.) 40.10
19 Kinde North Huron Lesperance, Jason (Sr.) 43.03


BOYS 800 METER RUN
1 North Muskegon Barker, Glen (Sr.) 1:57.54
7 Harbor Beach Ginther, Kevin (Sr.) 2:03.03

BOYS 400 METER RELAY
1 Ottawa Lake Whiteford 44.09
32 Harbor Beach 47.81

My impressions... looking at the times and how they performed on Saturday, I think Ubly has a great chance to win a second straight State Title, which is unprecedented, at least around here.
My best bets for an individual state title, I'll put my money on a pair of freshmen from North Huron-Megan Heffner and Caitlyn Homrich. When you look at their times, jumps, etc. compared to the top times, jumps, etc. they are so close. With warm weather, some adrenaline and maybe a little luck, an individual State Title is not out of the realm of possibility.
The nice thing for the duo is even if they come up short this time, they will likely have three more opportunities in their high school careers.