Playoff Primer

Ubly will be a Division 7 team in this year's playoffs...
Deckerville will make it as an additional qualifier at 5-4.

Editor’s notes: We are working on something special for next week’s Huron County Press, something that I think is both unique and very useful…a comprehensive Playoff Preview for teams in our coverage area (sorry not the entire Thumb, but since many teams will fall in the same divisions, you will be able to still read about them).
Not only we will be having game preview stories for both the Lakers and Ubly…and North Huron if they sneak in at 5-4, we’ll have information on every game and every team in that division, giving you a resource to reference throughout the entire post-season.
In starting that research, it was critical to find out with some degree of accuracy, which divisions are area teams are going to be competing in.
Based off of that research and barring any major upsets, I’ve come up with a lot of information I think you fans will be interested in reading.
In terms of methodology for this, we worked from the bottom up. Why you may ask? Because the number of additional qualifiers based on class can move things around and push teams up or down, but setting the minimums lets you know the farthest teams can be pushed down.

So here’s your Playoff Preview primer:
There are 336 teams with at least four wins at this point and a shot at getting in the playoffs.
181 teams have already qualified for 256 spots, leaving 75 openings. Based on their match-ups against teams with three wins or less this season, we predict at least an additional 32 teams will automatically qualify this week, cutting the field of additional qualifiers down to 43. Based on head-to-head matchups this week of five win teams, another eight teams will be qualifying for sure, cutting the potential field to 35 spots.
Of the 40 remaining games involving 5-3 teams, we have deemed 21 games to be likely losses based on the record of their opponent (7-1 or 8-0 records for opponents were considered likely losses). One additional team 5-3 team, Memphis, was eliminated from the field due to local knowledge of the likelihood that Brown City will beat them.
What this means is there should be a minimum of 17 additional qualifiers and a maximum of 35. Additional qualifiers are chosen equally from Class A-D and added to the field, before the divisions are drawn up. So for every four additional qualifiers, there will be one from each class. In the case of less than four, the determination of which Class A-D gets the qualifiers is based on largest class size to smallest.
Based on this information, there would be a minimum of four additional qualifiers from Class D (at most five, but that isn’t a realistic possibility). If we assume that perennial playoff powerhouse Muskegon Catholic Central will beat North Muskegon and qualify at 5-4, then depending on the result of the head-to-head match-up between Battle Creek St. Phillip and North Adams-Jerome, who are both 5-3, Deckerville makes it in as the third or fourth additional qualifier if they win this week (which we are predicting they will).
It doesn’t appear at first glance that North Adams-Jerome, if they lose, could pull ahead of Deckerville on playoff points. Battle Creek St. Phillip is already ahead of the Eagles. So there isn’t much chance a joggling of teams would end up costing a 5-4 Deckerville team a chance at the post-season.
As for North Huron, preliminary figures show it is unlikely they will gain enough playoff points to surpass any of the teams in front of them this week, meaning a 5-4 North Huron team likely does not get in, because there are simply not enough possible spots. Technically, if there are eight or nine additional qualifiers they would certainly have a shot, but for that to happen all 40 of the remaining 5-3 teams we discussed earlier would have to lose to 6-2 or 4-4 teams.
We predict Peck loses to Marlette this week, so they are out of the hunt as well.
It would also appear that based on 17 additional qualifiers and four of those coming from Class D, Ubly would be the 34th smallest team overall by attendance and would be in Division 7. However, Mendon, who was thought to be the toughest potential challenger for the Bearcats if they went to Division 8, have two teams in between them, which in at least the first scenario keeps them apart.
For Mendon to go to Division 7, there would need to be at least 24 additional qualifiers, meaning of the 40 5-3 teams we keep referring to 29 of 40 would have to lose, or seven of the teams in the 18 games in question. Five of the 18 games in question see the 5-3 team facing a 6-2 opponent and in one game the team faces a 5-2 opponent that has already qualified for the playoffs.
We’re going to put Mendon dropping to Division 7 in the too close to call category.
Dryden, who is one slot lower than Mendon attendance-wise for now appears to be an 8 also, but much like Mendon, that can still change.
Based upon four additional qualifiers in Class C, Brown City will be solidly in Division 7 and could find themselves matched in a district with Ubly, depending on the draw.
As for the Lakers and Reese, the floor for them based on the minimum number of additional qualifiers (again barring upsets) is Division 6 and that appears to be their ceiling as well. Consider it a lock that both teams will be in Division 6 along with Sandusky.