Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Playoff turmoil

Thanks to Chiuk Czlek for this tip based upon a Detroit News story he read...
S.H. Parkway Christian is forced to forfeit their first five games for using an ineligible player. What does that mean to area team?
It hurts Deckerville...but not as bad as we all orginally thought. With 69.33 playoff points, the Eagles had the second highest playoff point average in D8 behind Muskegon Catholic Central with 96.
So farDeckerville got 32 playoff points for their win over SHPC and 6.667 bonus points. When you subtract out the 32 points Deckerville drops from 272 points (45.33 avergae) to 240 (40 average). There bonus points drop from 24 to 17.333, giving them a total of 57.33 points, dropping them down to fifth in overall playoff points.
None of the teams that slipped past Deckerville have met up with Thumb teams in the post-season in recent years, so I don't think there would be a scenario at this point, where one of these teams would face up in a regional and this would give one of those teams home field advantage over the Eagles.
That's just my initial analysis.
I haven't been able to find the more complex formula as to how points are calculated so I don't know if Ubly would have been eleigible for additional bonus points from SHPC if they beat Deckerville Friday.
More to come as more info comes in.

****UPDATE****
I found the MHSAA info on how playoff points are figured out (the actual formula). this would be pertinent if the forfeit occurs, but so far hasn't been recognized by the MHSAA.
* Deckerville will not lose any of the 32 playoff points they got for beating SHPC (every team gets 32 points for beating a Class D school).
* They will lose 40 bonus points they got from SHPC wining five games (
every team gets eight points for every win someone they beat gets). Right now over six games, those points are averaged at 6.667. At the end of a nine game schedule, those points would have worth 4.444.
* The Eagles can still accumulate bonus points for every win SHPC gets from now through the rest of the season. With three games left, that means a maximum of 24 points, which would average out to 2.667. So really, Deckerville has only lost four bonus points, which will have little affect on anything. Also they only drop to #4 and not #5.
* This will in no way affect Ubly, who if they beat Deckerville, will still get the eight bonus points for the Eagle's win over SHPC.
* In terms of record and points scored, I don't know if this chanegs the official score to 2-0 or it remains the same. That would only affect possible statistical records for that game.
* Food for thought: if the game does change to a 2-0 game, does that wipe out all the stats from that games? If so that is a disservice to Marcus Kemp and his teammates, who put up good numbers in that contest.

8 comments:

Chris Ogryski said...

In looking this over, it might not even be as bad as the scenario I originally painted.
In doing a quick analysis of how Deckerville would lose points, I subtracted out all playoff points and bonus points from SHPC. They would still get some playoff points for beating SHPC anyhow, but at this point that would be maybe 1-2 points added back on. So once the MHSAA updates the information, we'll let you know the exact damage done.
If I can track down how this might affect other teams that played Deckerville, I'll post an update.

Anonymous said...

That's really unfortunate because of a kid's parents mistake, the whole get's punished like that.

Paul Adams said...

I don't care what the MHSAA does. Kemp earned those numbers and when we're selecting the All-Thumb Team, we will use them regardless of the official result.

It's the right thing to do.

Anonymous said...

You are correct, Deckerville's problem with the SHPC forfiets in no way effects Ubly.

Anonymous said...

Paul: I'm glad to hear you'll still use Kemp's #'s when you consider the all thumb team. He earned them. Since Ubly's coach never turns in the stats, I assume we won't be seeing any of their players on the 1st team, right? Just like last year.

Paul Adams said...

Grandpa, the problems with Ubly and other teams have been solved. Trust me, there will be plenty of Bearcats making up this year's teams. This is a process, one we think we have a pretty good idea of now. Hopefully, the problems we had are now in the past.

Chris Ogryski said...

Ditto Paul.

Grandpa,
A big part of Ubly's lack of representation on the first team last year, was the fact that Harbor Beach was so good they had a TON of guys on both 1st teams, as they should have as the area's most dominate team last year.
If Ubly can take care of their business tonight and finishes the regular season at 9-0 like HB did, their team will have a similar showing on the first team.

Rick Glaza said...

grandpa.....all of Ubly's stats are online.....right down to every last yard and point scored.....you just need to know where to look for them.